There must be some compelling reasons why Paul Ryan has decided not to seek re-election and retire from politics. The Speaker of the House of Representatives is third in line to become president of the United States under the United States Constitution.
1-President: Donald Trump
2-Vice-President: Mike Pence
3-Speaker: Paul Ryan
All indications are that Donald Trump will be impeached in March of 2019 by the United States House of Representatives for crimes committed, if the Democrats gain control of the House. Mike Pence will also be implicated in some of the wrongdoings down the road because he has to know something as Trump’s running mate during the presidential election.
If the President is impeached by the House of Representatives, then there has to be a vote in the United States Senate to remove him from office and for that 60 votes will be needed. If removed then Mike Spence automatically assumes the office but if he is indicted then he will not be able to become the President. This happened before when Richard Nixon was President and resigned from office. His Vice-President was Spiro Agnew who should have become President but resigned in 1973 after he was indicted. Gerald Ford who was the Speaker of the House at the time became President.
The Democrats do not have enough votes in the Senate to remove Donald Trump from office. It will require 60 or more votes to remove him. The way it looks so far, they will not get it after the elections in November of this year. Too many Democrats are running for re-election and Republicans always stick with each other even when they know that their colleagues are wrong. If they get some Republicans to join them, they will have the votes. That is possible because some of them do not like Trump because of his attitude and behavior.
Then, the Democratic Speaker of the House will take over the Presidency until 2020. Currently, Nancy Pelosi is the Democratic Leader in the House of Representatives but some Democrats want to replace her with a more dynamic and young leader. Who that person will be we will not know until after the elections of November 2018. I think that they will replace her based on all the indications I have seen so far. The Democrats will have to select a person, who is not only qualified to be Speaker of the House of Representatives but also qualified to be President of the United States.